The Fold Equity Calculator is a poker strategy tool that helps players estimate the expected value (EV) of a bet or raise when considering the chance that their opponent might fold. In competitive poker—especially no-limit Texas Hold’em—making profitable plays hinges not only on your hand strength but also on your opponent’s potential reaction. Fold equity refers to the value gained when your opponent folds, allowing you to win the pot without a showdown.
This calculator belongs to the Poker Strategy & Decision Tools category. It enables players to combine fold probability with expected post-call outcomes to evaluate the overall profitability of aggressive moves like bluffs or semi-bluffs.
By using this tool, players make smarter betting decisions, reduce losses, and maximize long-term gains.
Formula of Fold Equity Calculator
Where:
Fold % = Probability the opponent folds to your bet (as a decimal or percentage)
Current Pot = Total pot before your action
Call % = 1 − Fold %
Post-Call EV = Expected value if the opponent calls (can be negative if you’re behind)
Key Insight:
Fold equity adds positive value even when you're behind in hand equity, as long as the opponent folds often enough to offset losses when called.
Table: Quick Reference – Fold Equity Scenarios
| Fold % | Current Pot | Post-Call EV | Expected Value (EV) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | $100 | -$50 | (0.6 × $100) + (0.4 × -$50) = $60 - $20 = $40 |
| 40% | $150 | $20 | (0.4 × $150) + (0.6 × $20) = $60 + $12 = $72 |
| 70% | $80 | -$70 | (0.7 × $80) + (0.3 × -$70) = $56 - $21 = $35 |
This table helps players quickly evaluate if a bluff or semi-bluff is profitable based on various fold probabilities and pot sizes.
Example of Fold Equity Calculator
Let’s say the pot is $120, and you're considering a bluff. You estimate:
Fold % = 65%
Post-Call EV = -$40 (because you likely lose if called)
Now calculate EV:
EV = (0.65 × 120) + (0.35 × -40)
EV = 78 - 14 = $64
Result: The move has a positive expected value of $64, making the bluff a good play in the long run.
Most Common FAQs
Fold equity is the value a player gains by betting or raising with the expectation that the opponent will fold. It’s a crucial concept in bluffing and semi-bluffing strategies.
Estimating fold % involves experience, hand-reading, and observation. Consider factors like opponent type, previous actions, board texture, and your image at the table.
While the calculator is designed for study and post-game analysis, the principles can guide real-time decisions if you’ve practiced enough. In online play, it’s useful between hands for review.